College football Week 2 oddly specific predictions: Trouble looming at the Big House (2024)

I covered the NBA for several years, and one thing Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra taught me was that 3-point shooters have to keep letting it fly.

Making these predictions feels like I’m simply firing them up from half court.

But you can’t lose confidence if you’re not hitting buckets. So, I’ll keep shooting and get in the layup line if it’s open.

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We’ll get to my misfires below, but first, here are this week’s picks.

Most passing yards

South Alabama redshirt freshman Gio Lopez threw for 432 yards in a 52-38 loss to North Texas last week. Lopez faces Ohio this week. The Bobcats surrendered 354 yards and four touchdown passes to Kyle McCord in a 38-22 loss at Syracuse. This feels like a shootout. Put Lopez down for 400-plus yards and four TDs as the Jaguars win and cover the 1.5-point spread.

Most rushing yards

Sometimes it’s OK to run it back. North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton got an FBS-leading 30 carries in the win at Minnesota last week in a game in which the Tar Heels lost their starting quarterback to injury. UNC’s opponent this week, Charlotte, allowed 194 rushing yards in a 30-7 loss to James Madison. Hampton should hit the 200-yard mark Saturday in a double-digit win and climb to the top of the national leaderboard (passing Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, the current leader who is taking on Oregon this week).

Most receiving yards

Texas Tech’s defense gave up 506 yards passing in a 52-51 overtime win over Abilene Christian and now visits Washington State this weekend. Watch out for Wazzu’s Kyle Williams, who is coming off a 141-yard, two-touchdown performance in a 70-30 win over Portland State. I’ve got him down for 10 catches and 200-plus yards in a 3-point shootout win over the underdog Red Raiders.

Five big games

No. 3 Texas (-7.5) at No. 10 Michigan

This is Texas’ first regular-season road game at a Big Ten opponent since a 2005 visit to Ohio State. Both squads have stout defenses, but the Longhorns are much better at quarterback, and that will be the difference.

Quinn Ewers won’t match the 349-yard, three-touchdown performance he put up in last year’s 34-24 win at Alabama, but he’ll go for 280 yards and two scores as the Longhorns win by double digits and put an end to Michigan’s 23-game winning streak in the Big House.

NEXT STOP: ANN ARBOR FOR TEXAS-MICHIGAN‼️@TexasFootball | @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/QTAneg5l1c
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) August 31, 2024

No. 14 Tennessee (-7.5) vs. No. 24 NC State

The Wolfpack are 1-9 against the SEC since 2008 and the Volunteers have won six of their last seven against the ACC dating to 2012 — including a 35-21 win over NC State 12 years ago in a neutral site game similar to this one. NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson does fine work, but he was fighting for his life last week against Western Carolina.

Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa (-3)

The Hawkeyes have won eight of 10 in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, including last year’s 20-13 victory in Ames. Iowa’s offense rolled up 492 yards in a 40-0 shutout of Illinois State last week — a good sign since I predicted the Hawkeyes to average close to 28 points per game this season.

I’m not calling for 28 points this week against the Cyclones, but I feel good saying Kaleb Johnson will go for his sixth 100-yard rushing performance of his career (with two scores). Iowa’s defense will keep the Cyclones under 300 yards of total offense.

And here’s former Iowa State coach Dan McCarney expressing what it’s like for the Cyclones to actually win a game in this series.

Few know both sides of the Cy-Hawk rivalry like Dan McCarney – and it's still emotional for him to think about Iowa State's win in 1998 that snapped a 15-game losing streak in the series.
Just a bit of our one-on-one from last week at FRYfest. Full conversation ahead on Friday. pic.twitter.com/f9s2P30dnv
— Mitch Fick (@MCFick) September 4, 2024

Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5)

Last year, in Colorado’s 36-14 win in Boulder, Shedeur Sanders was the only quarterback who threw for more than 300 yards against Nebraska’s defense.

Nebraska has fabulous freshman Dylan Raiola now, but he doesn’t have the same type of weapons that Sanders does. But who has the better defense? Raiola. Nebraska will win at home by a field goal, but Sanders (330-plus passing yards, three TDs) and Jimmy Horn Jr. (150-plus receiving yards, two TDs) will keep it very interesting. Raiola will throw for 280-plus yards with two TDs and lead the Huskers on a game-winning drive.

Boise State at No. 7 Oregon (-19.5)

Is this a first-round College Football Playoff preview? It might be. The Ducks rolled up a bunch of yards in a 10-point win over Idaho but didn’t score nearly enough. They will this week against a Broncos defense that needed six touchdowns from Jeanty to beat Georgia Southern in the opener. Jeanty will run for 100-plus yards and score twice, but the Ducks will cover the spread and win by four touchdowns thanks to another big performance from Dillon Gabriel (400-plus passing yards, four TDs).

I expect to see the Duck chilling in the fourth quarter.

Reunited and it feels so good 😘#goducks https://t.co/k0wBPjEkpF pic.twitter.com/yakrR4zZQM
— Bri Amaranthus (@BriAmaranthus) September 1, 2024

Upset alert

No. 23 Georgia Tech (-3) at Syracuse

The Yellow Jackets are ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since September 2015. New defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci deserves a lot of the credit for the big leap the D has made, but Syracuse’s McCord is the best quarterback the Jackets will face in September, and Oronde Gadsden II is a handful to deal with as well.

McCord will throw for 300-plus passing yards and Gadsden will go for 100-plus receiving yards for the second week in a row to spring the 4-point upset.

Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King has yet to be sacked in two games this season. That will change when Fadil Diggs, his former Texas A&M teammate, brings him down in the first half.

🍊 354 Pass Yards
🍊 4 Pass TD (Cuse debut record)
Kyle McCord threw for a pair of career-highs in his @CuseFootball debut 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/bje9kj5TpK
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) September 1, 2024

Week 1 report card

My oddest and most specific predictions missed the mark like DJ Uiagalelei with an open receiver in the back of the end zone.

I was 6-3 picking games straight up but didn’t hit on any Week 1 stat stuffers save for touchdown catches by Colorado’s Travis Hunter (three) against North Dakota State. I also badly insulted Notre Dame’s young offensive line for no good reason, foolishly believed Brian Kelly’s team would actually win its first game on a neutral field and got Oklahoma State fans worried over nothing.

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Other lowlights:

• Hawaii covered the 14-point spread, as I predicted, in a 16-13 loss to UCLA, but quarterback Brayden Schager was not the nation’s top passer in Week 1. His 222 passing yards ranked 63rd.

• As I predicted, North Carolina’s Hampton rushed for 100-plus yards in the Tar Heels’ cover-the-spread victory at Minnesota. But he finished tied for 14th for the week among rushers (135 yards) — well behind Boise State’s Jeanty, who was incredible (267 yards, six TDs) in a 56-45 win at Georgia Southern.

• Colorado’s Hunter finished 17th in receiving yards, with 132 on seven catches. Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan (10 catches, 304 yards, four TDs in a win over New Mexico) had the top spot in Week 1.

• My upset of the week did not happen. Defending FCS champion South Dakota State got carved up on the road 44-20 by Oklahoma State.

• I completely whiffed on the Notre Dame-Texas A&M game. The Irish won (I said Texas A&M would), Riley Leonard didn’t get sacked once (I called for five sacks) and Leonard ran for 63 yards and was tackled just once for loss (I said he’d finish with negative yards for only the third time in his career).

• USC made me eat crow after I called for a 9-point LSU victory.

• Miami more than covered (I said the Canes would win by two scores) and rolled up 500-plus yards of offense (I said they would go for at least 400) in a 41-17 win at Florida.

• Top-ranked Georgia did crush Clemson by more than 21 points, as predicted, but quarterback Carson Beck finished 22 yards and one touchdown short of the 300-yard, three-TD performance that I called for.

(Photo: Aaron Meullion / USA Today)

Manny Navarro has been with The Athletic since September 2018 and covers Miami and recruiting. He's also the host of the "Wide Right" podcast. Manny's career started at The Miami Herald in October 1995 when he was a high school senior. He covered the Hurricanes, Heat, Marlins and high school sports for 23 years at the paper. He makes occasional appearances on WSVN's Sports Xtra on Sunday nights and is on the "Big O Show" with Orlando Alzugaray at 12:30 p.m. Tuesdays and Fridays. Follow Manny on Twitter @Manny_Navarro